ISGAN Lighthouse Project - Electricity Network Planning and Implementation under Uncertainty: The Roles of Smart Distribution Grids in Energy Systems

Title terms to be clarified:

• Planning under Uncertainty → uncertainty, institutions
• Implementation under Uncertainty → uncertainty, innovation, replication_and_scaling
• Smart Distribution Grids →smartness, smart_grids_transition, grid, grid_edge, energy_logistics, active_customers
• Energy Systems → integrated_system, systems

Key basic concepts and meanings to be clarified:

• Forecastig versus Foresight → foresight
• Risk versus Uncertainty → uncertainty
• Institutions and/versus organisations (“distribution-level institutions”) → institutions, institutional_change, commons, actors_roles
• Scenarios (“cohesive scenarios”) → foresight
• simulation methods for grid planning → simulation_grid_planning
• Stakeholder interaction → stakeholders, actors_roles, active_customers
• Theory of Change (ToC) → change, targets

The project centers on distribution-level grid planning and implementation, including its interrelation with transmission-level planning and implementation, and the rapidly accelerating electrification of other coupled sectors

Key terms to be clarified:

• interrelation with transmission-level planning and implementation → operability
• coupled sectors → sector_coupling
• distribution-level “institutions” (term used in outline for e.g., distribution system operators, utilities, or similar depending on market structure) → institutions , operator, markets

Rationale: Across the world, many countries are pursuing ambitious electricity system objectives, seeking to ensure reliable, resilient power while rapidly reducing emissions through deployment of cleaner and more efficient generation sources and end uses. Network capacity and flexibility are currently at the forefront of planners’ considerations, driven by the pivotal role of electrification as a fundamental facilitator of the clean energy transition. At the distribution level, the transition from traditional heating sources such as gas, oil, and coal to more sustainable alternatives like heat pumps, as well as the accelerating shift from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles, exemplify two critical areas where network capacity assumes paramount significance. The massive character of this transition, imply deep impacts also at transmission level, necessitating a holistic system of systems understanding of the grid coupled with targeted attention to particular grid domains.

Key terms to be clarified:

• ensure reliable, resilient power (public service) → security_supply, resilience, public_service, energy_-_service_of_public_interest, critical_infrastructure
• Network capacity → grid, network_theory
• Network flexibility → flexibility, flexibility_markets
• Grid domain → grid, grid_edge

Countries worldwide face formidable challenges when it comes to strengthening and expanding their power networks and making them more flexible and resilient. The enhancement of network forecasting, planning, and implementation can be significantly bolstered through the adoption of sophisticated tools, with a suite of smart grid technologies and approaches already being deployed as a facilitator. Moreover, the strategic formulation of market and tariff structures, including the exploration of flexibility markets, are approaches of increasing importance.

Key terms to be clarified:

• Forecasting - Planning - Implementation → foresight, innovation,innovation_policy, transformative_innovation_policy_tip, readiness, replication_and_scaling
• making power networks more flexible and resilient → resilience, flexibility, flexibility_markets, critical_infrastructure
• market and tariff structures → markets, tariffs

For ExCo discussion: Assuming the ExCo agrees with the proposed topic of distribution-level grid planning and implementation (again, taking into account transmission-level and sector coupling considerations), there are a variety of ways that topic can be broken down in actionable pieces. One possible approach has three principal parts:

• Part 1 could broaden the work of the prior KSP towards implementation of smart grid technologies and planning tools under uncertainty. After the planning phase, the pilot, demonstration, adoption, and integration of new technologies and tools also face tremendous uncertainty. Challenges include testing, information, and communications technology (ICT) reliability, interoperability, cost factors (or decision makers impressions of such) and also issues related to practitioners’ trust of the new technologies and approaches, which hinders the implementation of promising technologies and tools. In particular, use of smart planning, forecasting, and operational tools are in focus here.
• Part 2 could further build on a key recommendation of the KSP to “Develop cohesive scenarios for the electricity sector that show the necessary electrification measures required to achieve net zero emissions,” by exploring how net zero targets or similar aims for countries with different goals can be broken down for distribution-level institutions (e.g., distribution system operators, utilities, or similar depending on market structure). A key aspect at this level is how can these institutions get needed support in their planning processes and digitalization implementations.
• Part 3 could elaborate on another recommendation of the KSP to “Promote stakeholder interaction at all levels of the grid planning process.” Beyond disciplines like social sciences and economics that should be included in the planning processes, a special focus could also be on the several engineering disciplines that need to work together for a successful grid planning process, including experts on geoinformation, digitalization, power, and electrical engineering. The Lighthouse Project could consider ways of bringing these groups together to support smart, green grid planning.

ISGAN-wide: All ISGAN Working Groups can contribute to this project. For example: CWG: Webinars from successful as well as failed grid planning projects WG 3: Analysis of scenarios and estimation of risk due to uncertainty WG 5: C-HIL simulation methods for grid planning WG 6: DSO-TSO interaction considerations; distribution network planning tools WG 7: Support of experts-interaction issues WG 9: Considering flexibility options already in the planning or operational phases

IEA Technology Report 2020: Introduction to System Integration of Renewables - Decarbonising while meeting growing demand. https://www.iea.org/reports/introduction-to-system-integration-of-renewables

• Plannning and strategies https://www.iea.org/reports/introduction-to-system-integration-of-renewables/planning-and-strategies
• Technology Options https://www.iea.org/reports/introduction-to-system-integration-of-renewables/technology-options
• Market and system operation https://www.iea.org/reports/introduction-to-system-integration-of-renewables/market-and-system-operation

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IEA Net Zero Roadmap (2023 - update)

IEA. ‘Net Zero Roadmap - A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach’. Paris: International Energy Agency, 2023. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/6d4dda5b-be1b-4011-9dad-49c56cdf69d1/NetZeroRoadmap_AGlobalPathwaytoKeepthe1.5CGoalinReach-2023Update.pdf.

~~DISCUSSION|Discussion Section - PAGE OWNER: Klaus Kubeczko~~