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topics:uncertainty [2026/04/06 18:36] – vso_vsotopics:uncertainty [2026/04/18 00:58] (current) – vso_vso
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 <WRAP intro> <WRAP intro>
-Uncertainty is inherent to smart grid transitions and has to do with limited information and predictability of future events. +Uncertainty denotes conditions where there is no sufficient information to assign reliable probabilities to outcomes, ranging from parametric uncertainty (known unknowns) to deep uncertainty around hardly imaginable futures (unknown unkowns).
-</WRAP> +
- +
-<WRAP insight> +
-Smart grid transitions involve deep uncertainty — where probabilities themselves cannot be known — requiring governance responses different from standard risk management tools.+
 </WRAP> </WRAP>
  
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 Energy transitions involve long planning horizons, capital-intensive infrastructure, new actors, and shifting regulatory frameworks. All of this generates both risk and uncertainty in ways that interact and compound. Understanding the difference between the two, and where each comes from in energy systems specifically, is a precondition for designing effective governance responses. Energy transitions involve long planning horizons, capital-intensive infrastructure, new actors, and shifting regulatory frameworks. All of this generates both risk and uncertainty in ways that interact and compound. Understanding the difference between the two, and where each comes from in energy systems specifically, is a precondition for designing effective governance responses.
  
-<WRAP callout> +<WRAP callout> Uncertainty resists calculation, but it can be approached through embracing the inherent diversity of possible futures. </WRAP>
-When decision-makers treat genuine uncertainty as if it were calculable risk, they tend to underinvest in resilience and overestimate the reliability of their forecasts. +
-</WRAP>+
  
 ===== Shared definitions ===== ===== Shared definitions =====