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topics:transition_pathways [2026/04/23 08:37] – o.sachstopics:transition_pathways [2026/04/28 13:14] (current) – o.sachs
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 ===== Why this matters ===== ===== Why this matters =====
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 +Policy-makers face the challenge of meeting carbon reduction targets, which demand radical and disruptive changes to the energy system. When identifying transition pathways, focusing solely on technical and economic feasibility often falls short because it ignores the complex social dynamics and actor behaviors that drive change. A more comprehensive foundation for designing these pathways involves a multi-level perspective: examining the broad socio-technical landscape, analyzing the existing regime, and assessing the technological niches where radical innovations are developed. ((Foxon, T. J., Hammond, G. P., Pearson, P. J. G. (2010). Developing transition pathways for a low carbon electricity system in the UK. //Technological Forecasting & Social Change//, 77, 1203-1213. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.04.002))
  
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-[To be drafted]+Transitional pathways show a route to follow in order to achieve a desirable outcome.
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 Within the multi-level perspective, transition pathways outline co-evolutionary developments across the layers of a socio-technical regime, consistent with and dependent on framework conditions at the landscape and niche levels. Landscape factors — long-term cultural and biophysical conditions including climate change impacts — influence the regime without being structurally influenced by regime change within a given time horizon. Niche developments, understood as innovation ecosystems, provide the space for institutional, social, technological, and business innovation at multiple regime levels.((Kubeczko, K. (2022). //Transformative readiness: Unpacking the technological and non-technological aspects of sustainability transitions.// Presented at the 13th International Sustainability Transitions Conference (IST 2022).)) Within the multi-level perspective, transition pathways outline co-evolutionary developments across the layers of a socio-technical regime, consistent with and dependent on framework conditions at the landscape and niche levels. Landscape factors — long-term cultural and biophysical conditions including climate change impacts — influence the regime without being structurally influenced by regime change within a given time horizon. Niche developments, understood as innovation ecosystems, provide the space for institutional, social, technological, and business innovation at multiple regime levels.((Kubeczko, K. (2022). //Transformative readiness: Unpacking the technological and non-technological aspects of sustainability transitions.// Presented at the 13th International Sustainability Transitions Conference (IST 2022).))
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 +====  Deep Transitions ====
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 +A Deep Transition is defined as a series of connected and sustained fundamental transformations across a wide range of socio-technical systems in a similar direction. The First Deep Transition describes the wave-like build-up of these system transformations during the 19th and 20th centuries; while it led to unprecedented wealth and welfare, it was characterized by a specific directionality based on fossil-fuel reliance, resource intensity, and a relentless focus on labor productivity. The Second Deep Transition represents a fundamental overhaul of these guiding principles to address the cumulative social and ecological consequences of the first phase: climate change, environmental degradation, social inequality, and persistent unemployment.
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 +Schot and Kanger (2018) conceptualize Deep Transitions by combining the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) with the Techno-Economic Paradigm (TEP) framework. While the MLP focuses on changes within individual systems, the TEP framework describes how technological innovation occurs in successive waves or surges, that reshape the entire economy and society. A Deep Transition is understood as the process in which these broad waves of innovation synchronize the development of multiple socio-technical systems simultaneously, leading to fundamental and long-lasting societal shifts over several centuries.((Schot, J., Kanger, L. (2018). Deep transitions: Emergence, acceleration, stabilization and directionality// Reseach Policy//, 47, 1045-1059. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2018.03.009))
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 +{{ :topics:transitional_pathways_fig._3._long_term_continuity_in_deep_transition_dynamics..png?nolink&600 |}}
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 +**Figure 1.** Long Term Continuity in Deep Transition Dynamics.\\
 +//Source: Schot, J., Kanger, L. (2018). (( Schot, J., Kanger, L. (2018). Deep transitions: Emergence, acceleration, stabilization and directionality// Reseach Policy//, 47, 1045-1059. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2018.03.009))//
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 ==== Four transition pathway types ==== ==== Four transition pathway types ====
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 | **Technological substitution** | Strong landscape pressure; niche innovations sufficiently developed | Niche innovations break through and replace the existing regime | | **Technological substitution** | Strong landscape pressure; niche innovations sufficiently developed | Niche innovations break through and replace the existing regime |
 | **Reconfiguration** | Symbiotic niche innovations adopted to solve local problems | Innovations trigger further adjustments in the basic architecture of the regime incrementally | | **Reconfiguration** | Symbiotic niche innovations adopted to solve local problems | Innovations trigger further adjustments in the basic architecture of the regime incrementally |
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 ==== Regime layers ==== ==== Regime layers ====
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 **Figure 1.** Transition pathways framework: four regime layers and their relationship to landscape and niche levels.\\ **Figure 1.** Transition pathways framework: four regime layers and their relationship to landscape and niche levels.\\
-//Source: Kubeczko (2022), adapted from Foxon et al. (2010).((Foxon, T. J., et al. (2010). Branching points for transition pathways: Assessing responses of actors to challenges on pathways to a low carbon future. //Energy Policy//, 38(12), 7948–7959. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.09.020))//+//Source: Kubeczko (2022), adapted from Foxon et al. (2010).((Foxon, T. J., et al. (2010). Branching points for transition pathways: Assessing responses of actors to challenges on pathways to a low carbon future. //Energy Policy//, 38(12), 7948–7959. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.030))//
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 **Figure 2.** Ontological layers of a socio-technical energy regime.\\ **Figure 2.** Ontological layers of a socio-technical energy regime.\\
-//Source: Adapted from Foxon et al. (2010).((Foxon, T. J., et al. (2010). Branching points for transition pathways: Assessing responses of actors to challenges on pathways to a low carbon future. //Energy Policy//, 38(12), 7948–7959. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.09.020))//+//Source: Adapted from Foxon et al. (2010).((Foxon, T. J., et al. (2010). Branching points for transition pathways: Assessing responses of actors to challenges on pathways to a low carbon future. //Energy Policy//, 38(12), 7948–7959. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.030))//
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