Differences

This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.

Link to this comparison view

Both sides previous revisionPrevious revision
Next revision		Previous revision
topics:scenarios [2026/03/25 01:20] – admintopics:scenarios [2026/04/24 09:35] (current) – vso_vso
Line 7: Line 7:
 lead-authors: Klaus Kubeczko lead-authors: Klaus Kubeczko
 contributors: Vitaliy Soloviy contributors: Vitaliy Soloviy
-reviewers: [Names]+reviewers: Steven Wong
 version: 1.2 version: 1.2
 updated: 25 March 2026 updated: 25 March 2026
Line 16: Line 16:
  
 <WRAP intro> <WRAP intro>
-Scenarios help explore future possibilities via structured descriptions of plausible future states of the energy system. They can be used to examine how different combinations of technology, policy, market, and social assumptions could lead to divergent outcomes for grid infrastructure, market design, and system operation.+Scenarios help explore future possibilities via structured descriptions of plausible future states of the energy system. They can be used to examine how different combinations of technology, policy, market, and social assumptions as well as broader underlying conditions, could lead to divergent outcomes for grid infrastructure, market design, system operation and social outcomes.
 </WRAP> </WRAP>
  
-<WRAP insight> 
-Scenarios make planning assumptions visible and testable across a range of futures, rather than committing to a single projection. 
-</WRAP> 
  
 ===== Why this matters ===== ===== Why this matters =====
Line 72: Line 69:
 **South Africa -- Department of Mineral Resources and Energy** \\ **South Africa -- Department of Mineral Resources and Energy** \\
 The Integrated Resource Plan, developed through multi-stakeholder consultation, uses scenarios to weigh coal phase-out pathways against renewable deployment rates and socioeconomic impacts on mining communities.((Department of Mineral Resources and Energy, South Africa. (2019). //Integrated Resource Plan 2019.// DMRE. https://www.dmre.gov.za/Portals/0/Energy_Website/IRP/2019/IRP-2019.pdf)) The Integrated Resource Plan, developed through multi-stakeholder consultation, uses scenarios to weigh coal phase-out pathways against renewable deployment rates and socioeconomic impacts on mining communities.((Department of Mineral Resources and Energy, South Africa. (2019). //Integrated Resource Plan 2019.// DMRE. https://www.dmre.gov.za/Portals/0/Energy_Website/IRP/2019/IRP-2019.pdf))
-</WRAP> 
- 
-<WRAP case> 
-**European Union -- European Environment Agency** \\ 
-Four imaginaries ranging from technocracy to ecotopia were developed through participatory processes involving citizens, experts, and policymakers across member states to explore contrasting pathways toward sustainability.((European Environment Agency. (2022). //Imagining sustainable futures for Europe in 2050: A co-creation project of the EEA and its country network Eionet// (Web Report No. 16/2021). EEA. https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/scenarios-for-a-sustainable-europe-2050)) 
 </WRAP> </WRAP>
  
Line 138: Line 130:
 <WRAP distinction> <WRAP distinction>
 **Scenario vs. sensitivity analysis** \\ **Scenario vs. sensitivity analysis** \\
-Sensitivity analysis varies a single parameter to test its effect on outcomes. Scenarios vary multiple parameters simultaneously within a coherent narrative, capturing interactions between drivers that sensitivity analysis misses.+Sensitivity analysis varies set of pre-defined parameters to explore effect on the outcomes. Scenarios vary multiple parameters simultaneously within a coherent narrative, capturing interactions between drivers and qualitative implications of underlying conditions that sensitivity analysis might not capture.
 </WRAP> </WRAP>
  
Line 145: Line 137:
 [[topics:flexibility|Flexibility]] | [[topics:resilience|Resilience]] | [[topics:transitions|Transitions]] | [[topics:uncertainty|Uncertainty]] | [[topics:markets|Markets]] | [[topics:energy_logistics|Energy logistics]] [[topics:flexibility|Flexibility]] | [[topics:resilience|Resilience]] | [[topics:transitions|Transitions]] | [[topics:uncertainty|Uncertainty]] | [[topics:markets|Markets]] | [[topics:energy_logistics|Energy logistics]]
  
 +~~DISCUSSION~~