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topics:scenarios [2026/03/24 23:46] – admintopics:scenarios [2026/04/24 09:35] (current) – vso_vso
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 lead-authors: Klaus Kubeczko lead-authors: Klaus Kubeczko
 contributors: Vitaliy Soloviy contributors: Vitaliy Soloviy
-reviewers: [Names] +reviewers: Steven Wong 
-version: 1.1 +version: 1.2 
-updated: March 2026+updated: 25 March 2026
 sensitivity: low sensitivity: low
 status: in-review status: in-review
-ai-use: Claude Sonnet 4.6 (Anthropic) assisted with editorial revision, reference verification, and formatting; reviewed by Vitaliy Soloviy, 18.03.2026+ai-use: Claude Sonnet 4.6 (Anthropic) was used for editorial revision, reference verification, and formatting; reviewed by Vitaliy Soloviy, 18.03.2026
 </WRAP> </WRAP>
  
 <WRAP intro> <WRAP intro>
-Scenarios help explore future possibilities via structured descriptions of plausible future states of the energy system. They can be used to examine how different combinations of technology, policy, market, and social assumptions could lead to divergent outcomes for grid infrastructure, market design, and system operation.+Scenarios help explore future possibilities via structured descriptions of plausible future states of the energy system. They can be used to examine how different combinations of technology, policy, market, and social assumptions as well as broader underlying conditions, could lead to divergent outcomes for grid infrastructure, market design, system operation and social outcomes.
 </WRAP> </WRAP>
 +
  
 ===== Why this matters ===== ===== Why this matters =====
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 Smart grid transitions introduce uncertainty that single-point forecasts struggle to capture. Changes in generation profiles, the emergence of new market participants, and shifting roles of consumers and prosumers mean that planning frameworks built around a single expected future risk locking in infrastructure and rules that prove inadequate under conditions that were foreseeable but unexplored.((Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. //Foresight//, 5(3), 10–21. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680310698379)) Smart grid transitions introduce uncertainty that single-point forecasts struggle to capture. Changes in generation profiles, the emergence of new market participants, and shifting roles of consumers and prosumers mean that planning frameworks built around a single expected future risk locking in infrastructure and rules that prove inadequate under conditions that were foreseeable but unexplored.((Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. //Foresight//, 5(3), 10–21. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680310698379))
  
-===== A shared definition =====+===== Shared definitions =====
  
 A scenario in the context of smart grid transitions is a coherent, internally consistent narrative about how the energy system might develop over a defined time horizon, typically accompanied by quantitative parameters. Scenarios are tools for exploring uncertainty rather than instruments for prediction. Their value lies in revealing how different combinations of drivers could lead to divergent outcomes for grid infrastructure, market design, and system operation.((International Energy Agency. (2024). //World Energy Outlook 2024.// IEA. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024)) A scenario in the context of smart grid transitions is a coherent, internally consistent narrative about how the energy system might develop over a defined time horizon, typically accompanied by quantitative parameters. Scenarios are tools for exploring uncertainty rather than instruments for prediction. Their value lies in revealing how different combinations of drivers could lead to divergent outcomes for grid infrastructure, market design, and system operation.((International Energy Agency. (2024). //World Energy Outlook 2024.// IEA. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024))
 +
 +<WRAP tablecap>
 +**Table 1.** Scenario types, their purpose, and typical use in energy system planning.
 +</WRAP>
  
 ^ Type ^ Purpose ^ Typical use ^ ^ Type ^ Purpose ^ Typical use ^
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 The distinction between exploratory and normative scenarios matters for smart grid planning. Exploratory scenarios help planners assess whether proposed infrastructure investments remain robust across a wide range of futures, while normative scenarios guide the sequencing of actions needed to reach a specific target.((Börjeson, L., Höjer, M., Dreborg, K.-H., Ekvall, T., & Finnveden, G. (2006). Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user's guide. //Futures//, 38(7), 723–739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.002)) The distinction between exploratory and normative scenarios matters for smart grid planning. Exploratory scenarios help planners assess whether proposed infrastructure investments remain robust across a wide range of futures, while normative scenarios guide the sequencing of actions needed to reach a specific target.((Börjeson, L., Höjer, M., Dreborg, K.-H., Ekvall, T., & Finnveden, G. (2006). Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user's guide. //Futures//, 38(7), 723–739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.002))
 +
 +<WRAP tablecap>
 +**Table 2.** Key terms used in scenario-based planning and foresight.
 +</WRAP>
  
 ^ Term ^ Definition ^ ^ Term ^ Definition ^
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 **South Africa -- Department of Mineral Resources and Energy** \\ **South Africa -- Department of Mineral Resources and Energy** \\
 The Integrated Resource Plan, developed through multi-stakeholder consultation, uses scenarios to weigh coal phase-out pathways against renewable deployment rates and socioeconomic impacts on mining communities.((Department of Mineral Resources and Energy, South Africa. (2019). //Integrated Resource Plan 2019.// DMRE. https://www.dmre.gov.za/Portals/0/Energy_Website/IRP/2019/IRP-2019.pdf)) The Integrated Resource Plan, developed through multi-stakeholder consultation, uses scenarios to weigh coal phase-out pathways against renewable deployment rates and socioeconomic impacts on mining communities.((Department of Mineral Resources and Energy, South Africa. (2019). //Integrated Resource Plan 2019.// DMRE. https://www.dmre.gov.za/Portals/0/Energy_Website/IRP/2019/IRP-2019.pdf))
-</WRAP> 
- 
-<WRAP case> 
-**European Union -- European Environment Agency** \\ 
-Four imaginaries ranging from technocracy to ecotopia were developed through participatory processes involving citizens, experts, and policymakers across member states to explore contrasting pathways toward sustainability.((European Environment Agency. (2022). //Imagining sustainable futures for Europe in 2050: A co-creation project of the EEA and its country network Eionet// (Web Report No. 16/2021). EEA. https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/scenarios-for-a-sustainable-europe-2050)) 
 </WRAP> </WRAP>
  
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 <WRAP distinction> <WRAP distinction>
 **Scenario vs. sensitivity analysis** \\ **Scenario vs. sensitivity analysis** \\
-Sensitivity analysis varies a single parameter to test its effect on outcomes. Scenarios vary multiple parameters simultaneously within a coherent narrative, capturing interactions between drivers that sensitivity analysis misses.+Sensitivity analysis varies set of pre-defined parameters to explore effect on the outcomes. Scenarios vary multiple parameters simultaneously within a coherent narrative, capturing interactions between drivers and qualitative implications of underlying conditions that sensitivity analysis might not capture.
 </WRAP> </WRAP>
  
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 [[topics:flexibility|Flexibility]] | [[topics:resilience|Resilience]] | [[topics:transitions|Transitions]] | [[topics:uncertainty|Uncertainty]] | [[topics:markets|Markets]] | [[topics:energy_logistics|Energy logistics]] [[topics:flexibility|Flexibility]] | [[topics:resilience|Resilience]] | [[topics:transitions|Transitions]] | [[topics:uncertainty|Uncertainty]] | [[topics:markets|Markets]] | [[topics:energy_logistics|Energy logistics]]
  
 +~~DISCUSSION~~