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topics:scenarios [2026/03/19 23:33] – Status updated to review admintopics:scenarios [2026/04/24 09:35] (current) – vso_vso
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-<WRAP catbadge purple>General topicsstatus: review+<WRAP catbadge purple>General topics
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 lead-authors: Klaus Kubeczko lead-authors: Klaus Kubeczko
 contributors: Vitaliy Soloviy contributors: Vitaliy Soloviy
-reviewers: [Names] +reviewers: Steven Wong 
-version: 1.1 +version: 1.2 
-updated: March 2026+updated: 25 March 2026
 sensitivity: low sensitivity: low
-ai-use: Claude Sonnet 4.6 (Anthropic) assisted with editorial revision, reference verification, and formatting; reviewed by Vitaliy Soloviy, 18.03.2026+status: in-review 
 +ai-use: Claude Sonnet 4.6 (Anthropic) was used for editorial revision, reference verification, and formatting; reviewed by Vitaliy Soloviy, 18.03.2026
 </WRAP> </WRAP>
- 
  
 <WRAP intro> <WRAP intro>
-Scenarios help explore future possibilities via structured descriptions of plausible future states of the energy system. They can be used to examine how different combinations of technology, policy, market, and social assumptions could lead to divergent outcomes for grid infrastructure, market design, and system operation.+Scenarios help explore future possibilities via structured descriptions of plausible future states of the energy system. They can be used to examine how different combinations of technology, policy, market, and social assumptions as well as broader underlying conditions, could lead to divergent outcomes for grid infrastructure, market design, system operation and social outcomes.
 </WRAP> </WRAP>
 +
  
 ===== Why this matters ===== ===== Why this matters =====
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 Smart grid transitions introduce uncertainty that single-point forecasts struggle to capture. Changes in generation profiles, the emergence of new market participants, and shifting roles of consumers and prosumers mean that planning frameworks built around a single expected future risk locking in infrastructure and rules that prove inadequate under conditions that were foreseeable but unexplored.((Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. //Foresight//, 5(3), 10–21. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680310698379)) Smart grid transitions introduce uncertainty that single-point forecasts struggle to capture. Changes in generation profiles, the emergence of new market participants, and shifting roles of consumers and prosumers mean that planning frameworks built around a single expected future risk locking in infrastructure and rules that prove inadequate under conditions that were foreseeable but unexplored.((Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. //Foresight//, 5(3), 10–21. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680310698379))
  
-===== A shared definition =====+===== Shared definitions =====
  
 A scenario in the context of smart grid transitions is a coherent, internally consistent narrative about how the energy system might develop over a defined time horizon, typically accompanied by quantitative parameters. Scenarios are tools for exploring uncertainty rather than instruments for prediction. Their value lies in revealing how different combinations of drivers could lead to divergent outcomes for grid infrastructure, market design, and system operation.((International Energy Agency. (2024). //World Energy Outlook 2024.// IEA. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024)) A scenario in the context of smart grid transitions is a coherent, internally consistent narrative about how the energy system might develop over a defined time horizon, typically accompanied by quantitative parameters. Scenarios are tools for exploring uncertainty rather than instruments for prediction. Their value lies in revealing how different combinations of drivers could lead to divergent outcomes for grid infrastructure, market design, and system operation.((International Energy Agency. (2024). //World Energy Outlook 2024.// IEA. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024))
 +
 +<WRAP tablecap>
 +**Table 1.** Scenario types, their purpose, and typical use in energy system planning.
 +</WRAP>
  
 ^ Type ^ Purpose ^ Typical use ^ ^ Type ^ Purpose ^ Typical use ^
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 The distinction between exploratory and normative scenarios matters for smart grid planning. Exploratory scenarios help planners assess whether proposed infrastructure investments remain robust across a wide range of futures, while normative scenarios guide the sequencing of actions needed to reach a specific target.((Börjeson, L., Höjer, M., Dreborg, K.-H., Ekvall, T., & Finnveden, G. (2006). Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user's guide. //Futures//, 38(7), 723–739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.002)) The distinction between exploratory and normative scenarios matters for smart grid planning. Exploratory scenarios help planners assess whether proposed infrastructure investments remain robust across a wide range of futures, while normative scenarios guide the sequencing of actions needed to reach a specific target.((Börjeson, L., Höjer, M., Dreborg, K.-H., Ekvall, T., & Finnveden, G. (2006). Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user's guide. //Futures//, 38(7), 723–739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.002))
 +
 +<WRAP tablecap>
 +**Table 2.** Key terms used in scenario-based planning and foresight.
 +</WRAP>
 +
 +^ Term ^ Definition ^
 +| **Scenario** | A coherent description of a plausible future state, used as a tool for exploring uncertainty in planning and decision-making, distinct from a prediction or forecast.((International Energy Agency. (2024). //World Energy Outlook 2024.// IEA. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024)) |
 +| **Exploratory scenario** | A scenario that examines what could happen under different assumptions without assigning probability or normative preference.((Börjeson, L., Höjer, M., Dreborg, K.-H., Ekvall, T., & Finnveden, G. (2006). Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user's guide. //Futures//, 38(7), 723–739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.002)) |
 +| **Normative scenario** | A scenario that describes a pathway toward a desired future outcome, often used in backcasting exercises for policy design.((Börjeson, L., Höjer, M., Dreborg, K.-H., Ekvall, T., & Finnveden, G. (2006). Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user's guide. //Futures//, 38(7), 723–739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.002)) |
 +| **Horizon scanning** | A systematic process of identifying emerging trends, signals of change, and potential disruptions that may affect the energy system, often used as an input to scenario development.((Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. //Foresight//, 5(3), 10–21. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680310698379)) |
 +| **Futures cone** | A conceptual framework classifying alternative futures as projected, probable, plausible, possible, and preposterous, used to structure the range of futures considered in foresight exercises.((Voros, J. (2017). The futures cone, use and history. //The Voroscope//. https://thevoroscope.com/2017/02/24/the-futures-cone-use-and-history/)) |
 +| **Stress-testing** | The use of scenarios to evaluate whether a plan, investment, or institution performs adequately under adverse or extreme conditions.((Australian Energy Market Operator. (2024). //2024 Integrated System Plan.// AEMO. https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp)) |
  
 ===== Perspectives ===== ===== Perspectives =====
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 **South Africa -- Department of Mineral Resources and Energy** \\ **South Africa -- Department of Mineral Resources and Energy** \\
 The Integrated Resource Plan, developed through multi-stakeholder consultation, uses scenarios to weigh coal phase-out pathways against renewable deployment rates and socioeconomic impacts on mining communities.((Department of Mineral Resources and Energy, South Africa. (2019). //Integrated Resource Plan 2019.// DMRE. https://www.dmre.gov.za/Portals/0/Energy_Website/IRP/2019/IRP-2019.pdf)) The Integrated Resource Plan, developed through multi-stakeholder consultation, uses scenarios to weigh coal phase-out pathways against renewable deployment rates and socioeconomic impacts on mining communities.((Department of Mineral Resources and Energy, South Africa. (2019). //Integrated Resource Plan 2019.// DMRE. https://www.dmre.gov.za/Portals/0/Energy_Website/IRP/2019/IRP-2019.pdf))
-</WRAP> 
- 
-<WRAP case> 
-**European Union -- European Environment Agency** \\ 
-Four imaginaries — ranging from technocracy to ecotopia — were developed through participatory processes involving citizens, experts, and policymakers across member states to explore contrasting pathways toward sustainability.((European Environment Agency. (2022). //Imagining sustainable futures for Europe in 2050: A co-creation project of the EEA and its country network Eionet// (Web Report No. 16/2021). EEA. https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/scenarios-for-a-sustainable-europe-2050)) 
 </WRAP> </WRAP>
  
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 ==== Technologies and infrastructure ==== ==== Technologies and infrastructure ====
  
-Technology assumptions are central to any energy scenario. Small changes in cost trajectories for solar photovoltaics, battery storage, or hydrogen electrolysis can produce radically different infrastructure requirements. Scenario exercises need to account for technology learning curves, system integration costs, and lead times for grid reinforcement. Digital technologies — including advanced forecasting, grid automation, and data analytics — also feature as enablers of system flexibility and operational coordination.+Technology assumptions are central to any energy scenario. Small changes in cost trajectories for solar photovoltaics, battery storage, or hydrogen electrolysis can produce radically different infrastructure requirements. Scenario exercises need to account for technology learning curves, system integration costs, and lead times for grid reinforcement. Digital technologies including advanced forecasting, grid automation, and data analytics also feature as enablers of system flexibility and operational coordination.
  
 <WRAP case> <WRAP case>
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 </WRAP> </WRAP>
- 
-===== Key terms ===== 
- 
-^ Term ^ Definition ^ 
-| **Scenario** | A coherent description of a plausible future state, used as a tool for exploring uncertainty in planning and decision-making, distinct from a prediction or forecast.((International Energy Agency. (2024). //World Energy Outlook 2024.// IEA. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024)) | 
-| **Exploratory scenario** | A scenario that examines what could happen under different assumptions without assigning probability or normative preference.((Börjeson, L., Höjer, M., Dreborg, K.-H., Ekvall, T., & Finnveden, G. (2006). Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user's guide. //Futures//, 38(7), 723–739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.002)) | 
-| **Normative scenario** | A scenario that describes a pathway toward a desired future outcome, often used in backcasting exercises for policy design.((Börjeson, L., Höjer, M., Dreborg, K.-H., Ekvall, T., & Finnveden, G. (2006). Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user's guide. //Futures//, 38(7), 723–739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.002)) | 
-| **Horizon scanning** | A systematic process of identifying emerging trends, signals of change, and potential disruptions that may affect the energy system, often used as an input to scenario development.((Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. //Foresight//, 5(3), 10–21. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680310698379)) | 
-| **Futures cone** | A conceptual framework classifying alternative futures as projected, probable, plausible, possible, and preposterous, used to structure the range of futures considered in foresight exercises.((Voros, J. (2017). The futures cone, use and history. //The Voroscope//. https://thevoroscope.com/2017/02/24/the-futures-cone-use-and-history/)) | 
-| **Stress-testing** | The use of scenarios to evaluate whether a plan, investment, or institution performs adequately under adverse or extreme conditions.((Australian Energy Market Operator. (2024). //2024 Integrated System Plan.// AEMO. https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp)) | 
  
 ===== Distinctions and overlaps ===== ===== Distinctions and overlaps =====
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 <WRAP distinction> <WRAP distinction>
 **Scenario vs. sensitivity analysis** \\ **Scenario vs. sensitivity analysis** \\
-Sensitivity analysis varies a single parameter to test its effect on outcomes. Scenarios vary multiple parameters simultaneously within a coherent narrative, capturing interactions between drivers that sensitivity analysis misses.+Sensitivity analysis varies set of pre-defined parameters to explore effect on the outcomes. Scenarios vary multiple parameters simultaneously within a coherent narrative, capturing interactions between drivers and qualitative implications of underlying conditions that sensitivity analysis might not capture.
 </WRAP> </WRAP>
  
 ===== Related topics ===== ===== Related topics =====
  
-{{tag>flexibility resilience network_-_grid markets energy_logistics}} +[[topics:flexibility|Flexibility]] | [[topics:resilience|Resilience]] | [[topics:transitions|Transitions]] | [[topics:uncertainty|Uncertainty]] | [[topics:markets|Markets]] | [[topics:energy_logistics|Energy logistics]]
- +
-===== References =====+
  
 +~~DISCUSSION~~