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topics:risk [2026/08/04 11:39] – o.sachstopics:risk [2026/08/04 14:56] (current) – o.sachs
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 ===== Why this matters ===== ===== Why this matters =====
  
-Power grids are facing numerous challenges, driven by increasing complexity, higher energy demand, and a growing number of hazards/threats.((Zio, E., Aven, T. (2011). Uncertainties in smart grids behavior an modeling: What are the risks and vulnerabilities? How to analyze them?. //Energy Policy//, 39, 6308-6320.)) These changing circumstances have significant consequences. On the one hand, the risk of a grid failure is rising; on the other hand, risks are becoming increasingly difficult to calculate. In addition to that it raises questions about insurability and the possible rise of costs for maintaining, financing, expanding power grids. +Power grids are facing numerous challenges, driven by increasing complexity, higher energy demand, and a growing number of natural hazards.((Zio, E., Aven, T. (2011). Uncertainties in smart grids behavior an modeling: What are the risks and vulnerabilities? How to analyze them?. //Energy Policy//, 39, 6308-6320.))((Charpentier, A. (2008). Insurability of Climate Risks. //The Geneva Papers//, 33, 91-109.))These changing circumstances have significant consequences. On the one hand, the risk of a grid failure is rising; on the other hand, risks are becoming increasingly difficult to calculate. In addition to that it raises questions about insurability and the possible rise of costs for maintaining, financing, expanding power grids. 
  
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 However, this approach to risk calculation reaches its limits when historical data is lacking or unavailable, as is often the case with unprecedented environmental disasters. Furthermore, technical risk analysis fails to take into account that individuals perceive risks differently and, depending on their values, may be more willing to accept certain risks than others. Technical risk therefore represents only a fraction of comprehensive risk identification, assessment, and management. For example, psychological phenomena such as cognitive biases directly influence how people perceive risk. Consequently, individual actions are driven by perceived risk rather than by scientific, rational calculations. Therefore, these individual and personal factors must be taken into account when evaluating risk. ((Renn, O. (1998). Three decades of risk research: Accomplishments and new challenges. //Jounal of Risk Research//, 1(1), 49-71.))  However, this approach to risk calculation reaches its limits when historical data is lacking or unavailable, as is often the case with unprecedented environmental disasters. Furthermore, technical risk analysis fails to take into account that individuals perceive risks differently and, depending on their values, may be more willing to accept certain risks than others. Technical risk therefore represents only a fraction of comprehensive risk identification, assessment, and management. For example, psychological phenomena such as cognitive biases directly influence how people perceive risk. Consequently, individual actions are driven by perceived risk rather than by scientific, rational calculations. Therefore, these individual and personal factors must be taken into account when evaluating risk. ((Renn, O. (1998). Three decades of risk research: Accomplishments and new challenges. //Jounal of Risk Research//, 1(1), 49-71.)) 
  
-Risk distrubution on differnt acors. How wo mitigate Risk on electrical Grids (See Zio & Aven, 2011) +By distributing control capabilities to each component in the electrical grid and enabling the exchange of information between components, the grid gains a higher degree of control and flexibility 
 +This allows for better risk management and higher resilience in the event of sudden peak loads or other stressors. 
 +However, even though Smart Grids are intended to reduce risks to power grids, their own future is exposed to significant uncertainties. Thus, the development and expansion of these systems depend on a number of factors that make quantitative risk calculations difficult: the magnitude of the required investment, uncertainty regarding technological developments, unpredictable global energy demand trends, and shifting energy and environmental policies.((Zio, E., Aven, T. (2011). Uncertainties in smart grids behavior an modeling: What are the risks and vulnerabilities? How to analyze them?. //Energy Policy//, 39, 6308-6320.)) 
 + 
 +- Risk distrubution on different actors. How wo mitigate Risk on electrical Grids (See Zio & Aven, 2011)  
 + 
 +- why does the fact, that there are so many ucertaincies the insurability difficult? 
  
 - Similar to Resiliance, how to mitigate risk, Risk manegement (how would that look like in the case of Critical infrastructure like power grids)   - Similar to Resiliance, how to mitigate risk, Risk manegement (how would that look like in the case of Critical infrastructure like power grids)  
 +
 +- Risk analysis (also Zio & Aven, 2011)
  
 - Still something missing about Insurance and hedging  - Still something missing about Insurance and hedging