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topics:change [2026/03/19 14:25] – ↷ Page name changed from topics:theory_change to topics:change admintopics:change [2026/04/03 22:20] (current) – admin
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-[[foresight|]], [[pathways|]];+<WRAP catbadge purple>Governance, Innovation & Change 
 +</WRAP>
  
-[[playground:electricity_network_planning]]+====== Change ======
  
-====== Theory of Change (ToC) ======+<WRAP meta> 
 +lead-authors: [Name] 
 +contributors: [Names] 
 +reviewers: [Names] 
 +version: 0.3 
 +updated: 25 March 2026 
 +sensitivity: low 
 +status: draft 
 +ai-use: Claude Sonnet 4.6 (Anthropic) was used for editorial revision, reference verification, and formatting; reviewed by Vitaliy Soloviy, 17.03.2026
  
 +</WRAP>
  
-===== Theory of Change (ToC) [Simeone et al. 2023] =====+<WRAP intro> 
 +This topic is part of the ISGAN Wiki and is currently being developed. You can contribute directly by clicking the edit button, or use the [[about:newtopic|Topic Builder]] for guided input. A confirmed wiki account is required. Register and allow up to three days for admin confirmation. Before contributing, read the [[about:guidelines|ISGAN Wiki Editorial Guidelines]]. 
 +</WRAP>
  
-"We see Theory of Change as a fruitful and effective framework to support **strategic thinking**. Born in the mid-1990s within the context of philanthropic and development programmes and deployed in numerous social innovation initiatives (Stein & Valters, 2012), Theory of Change has demonstrated its potential to support efforts towards change-making and towards effective organizational or societal change. **Theory of Change is a way of thinking that systematically attempts to map the critical factors** (for example, psychological, social, economic, cultural processes) **by which change comes about** (Funnell & Rogers, 2011). The idea is that if there is a theory, as in an explanatory model,3 of how change happens, then it is easier to identify the critical factors that can lead to or determine change and then intervene in these factors. Working on the explanatory models within a Theory of Change framework is a way of thinking strategically about the key components of an activity, project, or programme, including its goals (and future impact), resources, and capabilities, and how these resources and capabilities can be mobilized."+<WRAP insight> 
 +Theories of change attempt to systematize factors and dependencies that affect real-world processes. 
 +</WRAP>
  
-Cases of using Theory of Change in the book relate "to support social design interventions, whether they be innovative services, community-driven initiatives, or development programmes."+===== Why this matters =====
  
-[source: Simeone, Luca, David Drabble, Nicola Morelli, and Amalia De Götzen. ‘Introduction to Strategic Thinking, Design and the Theory of Change’. In Strategic Thinking, Design and the Theory of Change, edited by Luca Simeone, David Drabble, Nicola Morelli, and Amalia De Götzen, 1–19. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2023. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781803927718.00006. [[https://www.elgaronline.com/edcollchap/book/9781803927718/book-part-9781803927718-6.xml]]]+<WRAP callout> 
 +[To be drafted] 
 +</WRAP>
  
 +===== Shared definitions =====
  
-===== Theory of Change - Continuum of purpose [Stein & Valters 2012]===== +Theory of Change is a way of thinking that systematically attempts to map the critical factors (psychological, social, economic, and cultural processes) by which change comes about. If there is an explanatory model of how change happens, it is easier to identify the critical factors that can lead to or determine change and then intervene in them. Working within a Theory of Change framework means thinking strategically about the key components of an activity, project, or programme: its goals and intended impact, its resources and capabilities, and how those resources and capabilities can be mobilised.((Simeone, L., Drabble, D., Morelli, N., & De Götzen, A. (2023). Introduction to strategic thinking, design and the Theory of Change. In L. Simeone et al. (Eds.), //Strategic thinking, design and the Theory of Change// (pp. 1–19). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781803927718.00006))
-"Just as definitions of ToC vary widely, this literature review found that organisations and donors also view ToC as having a variety of purposes. With this in mind, we propose that ToC approaches can be understood across a continuum. At the far left end is a very technical understanding of ToC representing its use as a **precise planning tool**, most likely as an extension of the ‘assumptions’ box in a logframe. In the middle is ‘ToC thinking’ – suggested by many as the key element of a ToC process – understood as a less formal, often implicit, use as a **‘way of thinking’ about how a project is expected to work**. On the far right side is an approach to ToC which emphasises the need for practitioners to develop ‘political literacy’, a complex and nuanced understanding of how change happens, allowing them to respond to unpredictable events.25 This final way moves further away from formal and technical approaches and sees ToC as a way of developing a politically informed and **reflexive approach to development**."+
  
-Within this continuum, they have identified four broad categories of purpose: +Theory of Change approaches can be understood across a continuum of purpose, from a precise planning tool at one end through to a reflexive at the other. Four broad categories of purpose have been identified: strategic planning (mapping the change process and expected outcomes), monitoring and evaluation (reviewing progress and revising the theory), description (communicating the change process to partners), and learning (clarifying and developing the theory behind a programme).((Stein, D., & Valters, C. (2012). //Understanding Theory of Change in international development//. JSRP Paper 1. London School of Economics. http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/56359))
-   +
-**Strategic planning:** ToC helps organisations practically to map the change process and its expected outcomes and facilitates project implementation. For these purposes, ToC is often used in conjunction with logframe approaches. +
  
-**Monitoring and evaluation**: ToCs articulate expected processes and outcomes that can be reviewed over time. This allows organisations to assess their contribution to change and to revise their ToC. +===== Perspectives =====
-  +
-**Description**: ToC allows organisations to communicate their chosen change process to internal and external partners. A simple description of an organisation’s ToC can be understood as minimal way of engaging with ToC.+
  
-**Learning**: ToC helps people to clarify and develop the theory behind their organisation or programme. This relates to an understanding of ToC as a thinking tool.+<WRAP perspectives> 
 +==== Actors and stakeholders ====
  
-[source: Stein, Danielle, and Craig Valters. ‘Understanding Theory of Change in International Development’. JSRP and TAF collaborative project. JSRP Paper 1. London: Justice and Security Research Programme, International Development Department, London School of Economics and Political Science, 2012. http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/56359.]+==== Technologies and infrastructure ====
  
-===== Differences Between the Theory of Change and the Logic Model [A.-M. Brown 2016] ===== +==== Institutional structures ====
--> [[https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-isthis-thing-called-theory-change-ann-murray-brown/?trk=hp-feed-article-title-share]]+
  
--> [[https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/theory-change-vs-logic-model-ann-murray-brown/]]+</WRAP>
  
 +===== Distinctions and overlaps =====
  
-{{:toc1.jpg?600|}}+===== Related topics =====
  
-{{:toc2.jpg?600|}}+[[topics:transitions|Transitions]] · [[topics:governance|Governance]] · [[topics:innovation|Innovation]] · [[topics:scenarios|Scenarios]] · [[topics:readiness|Readiness]]
  
-{{:toc3.jpg?600|}}+===== Topic notes =====
  
- +**Content notes from source material:** 
-~~DISCUSSION|Discussion Section - PAGE OWNER: Klaus Kubeczko~~+  * Source material includes three images from a LinkedIn article (Ann Murray Brown, 2016) comparing Theory of Change with logic models. LinkedIn posts are not citable sources and image licences are unknown — do not use without finding the original published source. The distinction between Theory of Change and logic models is worth capturing if a verifiable source can be found. 
 +  * Three merge flags in source: foresight, pathways, electricity network planning. None of these are standalone wiki pages — foresight and pathways content may belong here or in [[topics:scenarios|Scenarios]] and [[topics:transition_pathways|Transition pathways]] respectively. Electricity network planning is outside this topic's scope.